The System is Down: Hurricane Watch for July 19th

The Atlantic remains offline and will likely remain that way for the rest of July.

Florida and continental U.S. tropical threat synopsis: No tropical threats to Florida or the continental U.S. for the next week or more.

Almanac: It’s Friday, July 19th… day 49 of the 2024 hurricane season, 134 days to go. By total storm energy, the season is 5.2%, 12.6%, and 8.6% complete for the Atlantic, continental U.S., and Florida, respectively. One-eighth done in landfall terms! Good job, everyone!

On another note, a study I played a small role in to better understand the complex interplay of influences on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was published yesterday in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. The quick takeaway is that El Nino did play a key role in keeping the lid on tropical activity in the western Atlantic, but the influence of record-setting Atlantic warmth still resulted in a busy season. You can read the full study here.

Active storms: None.

Today’s NHC outlook (with a few timely modifications).

Other disturbances in the NHC tropical weather outlook: None. Check out that Blue Screen of Life.

CIMSS Atlantic 850-200 millibar wind shear. Unfavorable shear conditions in red.

Elsewhere: The Tropical Atlantic remains in Safe Mode today, and there remains no tropical disturbances of note. If we look at our ingredients for tropical cyclone formation, the atmospheric keys, shear and moisture, both are highly unfavorable for development. Above, shear over almost all of the Atlantic Basin is greater than 30 knots, and below, the total moisture in the column of the atmosphere is notably below average in the Main Development Region. Ensembles strongly suggest these unfavorable conditions will persist through the end of the month, and perhaps longer.

Morning GFS Ensemble mean precipitable water for today through Wednesday. Brown areas are drier than normal.

One unfortunate side effect of this pattern is that it is reloading the thermodynamic potential of the Tropical Atlantic, which truth be told was never depleted to begin with. Weaker than average low-level trade winds (in red, below) will lead to yet more anomalous warming of the already overheated Main Development Region for the next two to three weeks. Bottom line is there will be excessive oceanic heat potential for August and September hurricanes to tap into once the atmospheric conditions flip back to positive. Which they will…

Euro Ensemble mean 850 millibar zonal wind anomalies. Areas in red have winds more west-to-east than normal, thus meaning weak trade winds in the Tropics through week 2.

…but not right now. In the meantime, enjoy your weekend with nary a tropical cyclone or functional Windows device to be found.

Next update: Next bulletin Monday. Apologies for the late/missing forecasts— I was quite ill after coming back from vacation. Schedule will be back to normal next week.