Two Becomes One: The Hurricane Watch for June 2nd
Tropical Storm Arlene is in the east-central Gulf, but not a threat to Florida.
Florida tropical threat synopsis: Tropical Depression Two in the central Gulf is moving south and away from Florida, and most rainfall has remained offshore. TD2 is likely to dissipate over the weekend, but moisture to its east will keep Central/South Florida wetter than average for the next three days.
Almanac: It’s Friday, June 2nd… day 2 of the 2023 hurricane season, 181 days to go. By total storm energy, the season is 0.7%, 0.8%, and 0.6% complete for the Atlantic, continental U.S., and Florida, respectively.
Active Storms: Tropical Depression Two developed yesterday afternoon in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, and currently is moving south at about 5 mph over the east-central Gulf. (Note that this is TD 2 because the unnamed storm in January was the first Atlantic tropical or subtropical cyclone of 2023). So far, TD 2 has not strengthened into Tropical Storm Arlene, and is likely running out of time to do so; maximum sustained winds remain 35 mph as of the NHC 11 a.m. advisory.
Wind shear remains a stiff 30 knots in the vicinity of TD 2, and this has displaced all the deep convection well northeast of the low-level circulation center. Shear and dry air encroachment will step up even further starting tonight as the depression continues to sink south, and TD 2 will likely dissipate tomorrow or Sunday in the southern Gulf before its remnants turn east. There is still a small chance that TD 2 becomes Tropical Storm Arlene later today, but time is running short for that.
Florida impacts, such as they are, have not changed since yesterday. Moisture to the east of the depression will enhance thunderstorm chances in Central and South Florida for the next 2-3 days as TD2 remains well offshore. Another 0.5-2” is expected through the weekend along and south of I-4. North Florida is drying out today, and otherwise, TD2 will have a minimal influence on U.S. weather. It is a good reminder, however, that hurricane season is underway.
Other Disturbances in NHC outlook, with 2-/7-day NHC development odds: None.
Elsewhere: Nothing else of note in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf.
Next report: The first weekly column of the year will be released on Monday; watch for short updates on TD2 via Substack Chat over the weekend if necessary.