Real-time 2023 Atlantic hurricane season projections
Seasonal hurricane forecast models, including for U.S. landfall risks, updated daily.
WeatherTiger’s seasonal hurricane model projections update daily between late May and mid-October. Bookmark this page and check back often for the latest guidance. Sign up free for weekly columns, and become a supporter to get exclusive daily tropical briefings, real-time U.S. landfall risk modeling, and much more.
Real-time Hurricane Season Activity Model (ACE)
Current update: 12 October 2023, 12 p.m. This is the final update for 2023 season.
For model methodology details, read our latest seasonal outlook write-up. Verification scores over the 2016-2022 period can be found here. Model output will be updated each day (other than Saturdays), usually in the afternoon. Real-time probabilities for U.S. hurricane landfall risks are below for paid supporters.
Real-time U.S. Landfall Model (Subscribers only)
Current update: 2 October 2023. This is the final update for the 2023 hurricane season.
A write-up of our landfall risk model expectations for the peak of hurricane season can be read here. Real-time updates are below for subscribers.