National Tr3asur3: The Hurricane Watch for July 3rd
National Tr3asur3: The Hurricane Watch for July 3rd
On the 33rd day of hurricane season, all clues point to a quiet couple of weeks ahead.
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With all REAL Americans busy stealing the Articles of Confederation to recover the Masonic popcorn shrimp recipe Benjamin Franklin wrote on the back of it, this week’s hurricane column is going to be a short one. Clues like the Washington Monument being 555 feet, 5 inches tall and 55 feet wide aren’t going to decode themselves; you’re going to need 100% focus to unlock the profound implications of the fact that there are six 5’s in those measurements, six letters in shrimp, and a 5 kind of looks like an old-timey S.
Here’s a quick holiday review of tropical goings-on, or the lack thereof, to free up your mental capacity and set you on your way to recovering the President’s Book of Secrets1:
Florida tropical threat synopsis: No tropical threats to Florida over the next week.
Almanac: It’s Monday, July 3rd… day 33 (numerology ALERT) of the 2023 hurricane season, 150 days to go. By total storm energy, the season is 2.7%, 8.0%, and 7.3% complete for the Atlantic, continental U.S., and Florida, respectively.
The lack of tropical threats is not unusual in early July. In fact, July is the second-quietest month of hurricane season from a U.S. landfall perspective, historically trailed only by November. Total landfall frequency for the continental U.S. drops by about 50% between mid-June and mid-July, with an even more pronounced 75% drop in Florida as the “Steinhatchee season” of weak, wet Gulf Coast landfalls tapers. Impact rates begin to rise again in the second half of July.
Active Storms: None.
Other Disturbances in NHC outlook, with 2-/7-day NHC development odds: None. A nice blank map. Does the back of it contain information exonerating your disgraced great-great-grandfather for his reported involvement in the Teapot Dome scandal? You’ll have to steal it to find out— Nic Cage says there’s no other way.
Elsewhere: The Atlantic is about as quiet as it gets today. The only feature of note is a tropical wave passing the southern Lesser Antilles, which is generating some impressive convection. However, this wave is heading straight into the teeth of lethal wind shear over the Caribbean, which will make any further development impossible. Overall, the general regime of strong shear in the western Atlantic and dry air over the eastern Atlantic will continue for the foreseeable future, and tropical development is not likely until the second half of July.
Despite this expected interlude, WeatherTiger’s hurricane season modeling has nudged towards higher odds of a busier year over the last few weeks. This shift is partially due to adding in the unusual level of tropical activity in June, but also driven by continued warming of already ludicrously warm water in the eastern Atlantic, and wavering of the rate at which El Nino is strengthening. As of today’s daily model update, there is about a 40% chance of an above average season, 40% chance of a near normal season, and 20% odds of a below normal season. I’ll be carefully monitoring trends through July, and have a full refresh of WeatherTiger’s season outlook at the end of the month. (U.S. landfall risks are not following the same evolution— supporters can view the odds of total hurricane landfall numbers over the paywall.)
Next report: Off tomorrow; daily bulletins resume Wednesday morning for subscribers. In the meantime, happy Independence Day, and don’t forget to apply a Vigenère cipher to any mysterious correspondence from strangers you receive concerning possible locations of the City of Gold or the long-lost Hidden Valley Ranch; the keyword is SHRIMP. Keep watching the skies.
U.S. hurricane landfall odds update
Fortunately, U.S. landfall odds haven’t really budged in the past few weeks, or, indeed, since the initial model runs. Part of that is that while landfall odds from this point on have risen slightly, nothing has happened in the first 8% of the season from a U.S. landfall perspective.
Per our model, there is about a 25% chance of no U.S. hurricane landfalls this year, a 30% chance of one landfall, 25% chance of two landfalls, and a 20% chance of three or more landfalls.
Let’s be honest, the Book of Secrets is probably somewhere in South Florida at this point.
Very clever! Love to start the day with a smile! :>)
Today was a treasure for a treasure hunter!!! Thanks for the humor!