Excellent discussion and proof that following a few individual models is a form of ‘wishcasting’ that only adds hype to those commercial interests that feed off it. The men and women of the NHS are always the best and most reliable experts to follow. Thanks for this post!
I posted this figure in the conclusion to the 2023 model rankings (https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/atlantics-next-top-model-hurricane), but the NHC internally tracks forecast consistency as well as accuracy. Not surprisingly, not only is the NHC track forecast more skillful than any of the top-tier global models (GFS, Euro, UK), but it is far more consistent as well.
The problem with the explosion of available models is that it is very easy to construct a misleading narrative, either for yourself, or for profit, out of tools that don't actually add value to an objective forecast process.
Excellent discussion and proof that following a few individual models is a form of ‘wishcasting’ that only adds hype to those commercial interests that feed off it. The men and women of the NHS are always the best and most reliable experts to follow. Thanks for this post!
I posted this figure in the conclusion to the 2023 model rankings (https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/atlantics-next-top-model-hurricane), but the NHC internally tracks forecast consistency as well as accuracy. Not surprisingly, not only is the NHC track forecast more skillful than any of the top-tier global models (GFS, Euro, UK), but it is far more consistent as well.
The problem with the explosion of available models is that it is very easy to construct a misleading narrative, either for yourself, or for profit, out of tools that don't actually add value to an objective forecast process.
I really enjoy your all of your articles and appreciation your knowledge and devotion. Thx for making our lives a little safer every day. Mark Hoffman
Thanks Mark!
Remember waiting for Michael like yesterday. Thanks for reminding me (not sarcasm).
Me too. It felt like a nightmare that I couldn't wake up from.