Jon, Susan, you are so right! Dr. Ryan’s masterful and concise presentations of alternative Ian path scenarios was a cut above any alternative source…..one of the many reasons I will continue to subscribe!
Considering the outliers and delay in narrowing the path, wonder how many folks bought into the late lack of model agreement and choose to stay. Lost track of the number of folks who, based on the model schizophrenia, thought Ian would hit Tampa or further north. Forecast credibility is up for grabs!
I'm not sure why the guidance disagreement was so sharp for Ian. Forecasting this storm felt more like 15 or 20 years ago, when 400 mile spreads at a 2 or 3 day lead time were not so unusual.
The best that could be done in this case was to try to communicate that uncertainty honestly and directly... but I agree that some did perhaps use that uncertainty as justification for inaction, even for areas consistently within the cone.
We left last Friday, niece Saturday, friend in Naples Sunday, friends in Tampa Saturday….all are well and all exited based on your Friday guidance…..thank you.
Jon, Susan, you are so right! Dr. Ryan’s masterful and concise presentations of alternative Ian path scenarios was a cut above any alternative source…..one of the many reasons I will continue to subscribe!
Thanks so much for your "usual" forecasts that are always "right on the money"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Considering the outliers and delay in narrowing the path, wonder how many folks bought into the late lack of model agreement and choose to stay. Lost track of the number of folks who, based on the model schizophrenia, thought Ian would hit Tampa or further north. Forecast credibility is up for grabs!
I'm not sure why the guidance disagreement was so sharp for Ian. Forecasting this storm felt more like 15 or 20 years ago, when 400 mile spreads at a 2 or 3 day lead time were not so unusual.
The best that could be done in this case was to try to communicate that uncertainty honestly and directly... but I agree that some did perhaps use that uncertainty as justification for inaction, even for areas consistently within the cone.
We left last Friday, niece Saturday, friend in Naples Sunday, friends in Tampa Saturday….all are well and all exited based on your Friday guidance…..thank you.
That's great to hear. Nothing else sensible to do but run from the water when it is coming.