Doctor, you never have to answer my comments. Kind of a USF-UF struggle. Yesterday's track over UF now near FSU. I am neutral, my son graduated from FSU, my wife got her Masters at UF.
The 11 a.m. NHC forecast now calls for a landfall intensity Monday AM of 90 mph, with Debby's most likely landfall somewhere between Steinhatchee and St. Marks.
With low- and mid-level centers now better aligned, chances of rapid intensification have risen from earlier today.
Been looking at the radar and it looks to me like you were right about the low-level center reforming to the east to line up with the mid-level center.
Thanks for the update...I'm in Charlotte County. I have a concern about the reformation east of the center during the day. Do you have a probability of how that will change the track along the coast? I have "The YIPS" about storms turning a hard right into Charlotte Harbor and up the Peace River... and PTSD from Hurricane's Charley and Ian. My concern isn't only for my County, but for Tampa Bay as well, depending on if/when reformation happens.
The center is already moving north of Charlotte Harbor's latitude right now, so you don't have to worry about landfall in SW Florida with Debby. You'll get the worst of what you're going to get between now and this afternoon: strong bands, but nothing too bad.
That's a relief for me. I am still concerned about Tampa Bay if reformation occurs. Ultimately, I'm hoping no reformation and only small branches drop at landfall in your area or west.
Doctor, you never have to answer my comments. Kind of a USF-UF struggle. Yesterday's track over UF now near FSU. I am neutral, my son graduated from FSU, my wife got her Masters at UF.
John
The 11 a.m. NHC forecast now calls for a landfall intensity Monday AM of 90 mph, with Debby's most likely landfall somewhere between Steinhatchee and St. Marks.
With low- and mid-level centers now better aligned, chances of rapid intensification have risen from earlier today.
Been looking at the radar and it looks to me like you were right about the low-level center reforming to the east to line up with the mid-level center.
Yep. Shift east coming in the NHC track. Good news for Tallahassee, will break it all down in the afternoon forecast.
Thanks for the update...I'm in Charlotte County. I have a concern about the reformation east of the center during the day. Do you have a probability of how that will change the track along the coast? I have "The YIPS" about storms turning a hard right into Charlotte Harbor and up the Peace River... and PTSD from Hurricane's Charley and Ian. My concern isn't only for my County, but for Tampa Bay as well, depending on if/when reformation happens.
Dang that 92 degree water.
The center is already moving north of Charlotte Harbor's latitude right now, so you don't have to worry about landfall in SW Florida with Debby. You'll get the worst of what you're going to get between now and this afternoon: strong bands, but nothing too bad.
That's a relief for me. I am still concerned about Tampa Bay if reformation occurs. Ultimately, I'm hoping no reformation and only small branches drop at landfall in your area or west.