Real-time 2022 Atlantic hurricane season projections

Seasonal forecast model data, updated daily. A WeatherTiger world exclusive.

WeatherTiger is offering a unique perspective on tropical risks in 2022 by updating our seasonal ACE forecast model daily. Bookmark this page and check back often for the latest guidance, and if you like what you read, sign up for our paid subscription. Get daily tropical briefings each weekday, weekly columns, coverage of U.S. hurricane threats, and expanded seasonal outlooks, all for $7.99 per month. Free subscribers receive our weekly columns.

The latest seasonal forecast update, integrating data through October 19th, is below. This will be the final update for the 2022 hurricane season. The real-time model will return to regular publication in spring 2023.

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WeatherTiger’s forecast model of total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) for the 2022 hurricane season is updated each afternoon between May and October.

For details of how this model works, read our latest seasonal outlook write-up. A current ACE exceedance plot and estimated intraseasonal skill curve are below, as is our operational model’s forecast performance over 2016-2021 compared with other forecast groups.

You can access our latest weekly column here.

Archived seasonal forecasts source: https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/.