Is this the first time there’s ever been a probability cone for something that’s not a tropical storm? PTC is new to me! Ever since Aculpulco I fear rapid intensification every time I hear “tropical storm”. You have said that RI is difficult to predict…do you see anything like that happening with this storm?
The potential tropical cyclone designation started in 2017 as a way of allowing the NHC to issue watches and warnings for disturbances that hadn't organized yet. In this case, time and maybe dry air to the west is the limiting factor over the eastern Gulf to forestall rapid intensification. I don't see it happening the way things are currently lining up, but can't be ruled out until there's more confidence in PTC 4 not stalling offshore in the Gulf.
We both know how social media will react. My wife got a text message at 4 AM, probably about the State of Emergency being declared. Our neighborhood blog is going nuts now. I would appear with several officials every year at a meeting of the Siesta Key Association giving them information about hurricane prep.
Sorry you have to work the weekend but I am so glad you are here.
I am also sorry that I have to work this weekend, but glad that I can help.
Is this the first time there’s ever been a probability cone for something that’s not a tropical storm? PTC is new to me! Ever since Aculpulco I fear rapid intensification every time I hear “tropical storm”. You have said that RI is difficult to predict…do you see anything like that happening with this storm?
The potential tropical cyclone designation started in 2017 as a way of allowing the NHC to issue watches and warnings for disturbances that hadn't organized yet. In this case, time and maybe dry air to the west is the limiting factor over the eastern Gulf to forestall rapid intensification. I don't see it happening the way things are currently lining up, but can't be ruled out until there's more confidence in PTC 4 not stalling offshore in the Gulf.
I haven't received your Saturday afternoon update on the TS. Has it been delayed or have I somehow not gotten it??
I waited to write today's forecast until it was upgraded to Debby and finally free of Cuba to have better insight on impacts. It's here now: https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/tropical-storm-debby-florida-impacts
Tomorrow's forecasts will be out earlier, first for paid supporters at 9 a.m. and then probably around 5 p.m. for everyone.
You mentioned a stationary storm. 1985 Elena. I had just become the General Manager of Siesta Key Utilities. An interesting time for us on the Key.
That must have been quite an experience. I wonder how social media would react to a looper like Elena...
We both know how social media will react. My wife got a text message at 4 AM, probably about the State of Emergency being declared. Our neighborhood blog is going nuts now. I would appear with several officials every year at a meeting of the Siesta Key Association giving them information about hurricane prep.