Some local coverage today on the 1921 Tarpon Springs hurricane anniversary. You've covered this too in the past, and they reference a "Chaz model" and Columbia University study on why Tampa is spared a direct hit over and over again. Personally, I like the Native American burial grounds myth (lots of ancient shell mounds here in the Southbay)! Care to comment, especially the slight to the Seminoles about Columbia U being the best meteorology university?
I did see that study. Overall I think it bridges a gap between research and impacts, and the Columbia team is top notch.
Overall, I'm a little skeptical of climate model downscaling techniques, simply because climate models and reanalysis are too coarse to adequately replicate tropical cyclones, especially the core processes of major hurricanes. I do think the study has reached a generally reasonable conclusion assuming a stable climate, though I also think there is some degree of luck involved in Tampa not seeing a major hurricane impact since 1921.
The bigger weakness is that assuming the future will be like the past appears increasingly foolish. We know that the proportion of storms undergoing rapid intensification is rising. There isn't enough data to make rigorous localized conclusions, but this certainly seems to be happening repeatedly in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. I would venture that the CHAZ sample would say a hurricane like Idalia would be a 200-year event, which, while impossible to disprove, feels too optimistic. Additionally, the extent to which steering currents may be altered by climate change is a huge unknown.
To be fair, there is going to be a second part of the study that will attempt to address those limitations. I don't know that any tool necessarily can address those weaknesses at this stage, but I'll be interested to see the research when published.
I didn't know that story about Columbus, interesting that the signs were recognized that early. Seems like it took another 300 years for the observational networks and knowledge to be formalized.
I heartily agree with the earlier comments, Doc. Well done! Fingers crossed your 2023 LaCroix tower @ WT's World HQ is done for the year...
Thanks. I look forward to crashing through it like the Kool-aid Man on November 30.
Enjoyed your work all season long. I firmly believe hurricane season is over this year and you can kick back now!
I appreciate your optimism but will refrain from incurring bad juju by calling time on the season. Let's hope you're right.
Really enjoyed your take this year!
Thank you and keep watching the skies!
Some local coverage today on the 1921 Tarpon Springs hurricane anniversary. You've covered this too in the past, and they reference a "Chaz model" and Columbia University study on why Tampa is spared a direct hit over and over again. Personally, I like the Native American burial grounds myth (lots of ancient shell mounds here in the Southbay)! Care to comment, especially the slight to the Seminoles about Columbia U being the best meteorology university?
https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-the-tropics/photos-tampa-bays-deadliest-hurricane-made-landfall-on-this-day-in-1921/?utm_source=wfla_app&utm_medium=social&utm_content=share-link
https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-the-tropics/photos-tampa-bays-deadliest-hurricane-made-landfall-on-this-day-in-1921?utm_source=wfla_app&utm_medium=social&utm_content=share-link
I did see that study. Overall I think it bridges a gap between research and impacts, and the Columbia team is top notch.
Overall, I'm a little skeptical of climate model downscaling techniques, simply because climate models and reanalysis are too coarse to adequately replicate tropical cyclones, especially the core processes of major hurricanes. I do think the study has reached a generally reasonable conclusion assuming a stable climate, though I also think there is some degree of luck involved in Tampa not seeing a major hurricane impact since 1921.
The bigger weakness is that assuming the future will be like the past appears increasingly foolish. We know that the proportion of storms undergoing rapid intensification is rising. There isn't enough data to make rigorous localized conclusions, but this certainly seems to be happening repeatedly in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. I would venture that the CHAZ sample would say a hurricane like Idalia would be a 200-year event, which, while impossible to disprove, feels too optimistic. Additionally, the extent to which steering currents may be altered by climate change is a huge unknown.
To be fair, there is going to be a second part of the study that will attempt to address those limitations. I don't know that any tool necessarily can address those weaknesses at this stage, but I'll be interested to see the research when published.
Word has it that Chris Columbus reported the first hurricane warning:
https://www.click2houston.com/news/2014/10/13/bill-read-christopher-columbus-gave-first-documented-hurricane-warning/
It is reported that the words “storm surge”, “hurricane hunter” and FEMA were not used.
It is reported that a passenger and Italian multimillionaire Marte Cantore had to forcefully removed from the mast during the storm….
I didn't know that story about Columbus, interesting that the signs were recognized that early. Seems like it took another 300 years for the observational networks and knowledge to be formalized.