September Gales: Tropical Storm Ophelia Update for September 22nd
Tropical Storm Ophelia will have water and wind impacts on eastern North Carolina and the coastal mid-Atlantic through Sunday.
Florida tropical threat synopsis: Tropical Storm Ophelia is moving north and away from Florida. Impacts limited to breezy conditions and heavy Atlantic surf of 5 to 7 feet. Otherwise, no tropical threats to Florida for at least the next week.
Almanac: It’s Friday, September 22nd… day 113 of the 2023 hurricane season, 70 days to go. By total storm energy, the season is 65.8%, 75.1%, and 64.4% complete for the Atlantic, continental U.S., and Florida, respectively.
With the development of Tropical Storm Ophelia, 2023 has now seen 11 named storms develop since August 20. This is the most named storms to develop in this period in any year other than 2020, and 2023 could equal 2020 this weekend if Invest 90L develops. The average number of named storm formations in that frame is 5.
Active Storms: As of the 2 p.m. intermediate advisory, the NHC has classified the former Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 as Tropical Storm Ophelia, with maximum sustained winds now 60 mph per aircraft recon. Ophelia is around 150 miles south of Cape Hatteras, moving north-northwest at 12 mph or so. On this track, Ophelia’s center will cross the coast east of Wilmington early tomorrow morning, and then move north into the eastern mid-Atlantic by Saturday evening while winding down.
Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rain are already onshore in coastal NC, and will continue to ramp up this evening. Ophelia’s impacts on eastern North Carolina and the eastern mid-Atlantic will be relatively modest, but will span all four of the major tropical cyclone threats: wind, surge, flooding, and tornadoes. With NHC peak intensity now up to 65 mph, the Outer Banks and Sounds could see gusts over 60 mph, with a large region of 40+ mph gusts in eastern NC and the VA Tidewater. Coastal flooding will likely be the biggest impact of Ophelia, with a large region of storm surge of 2-4’ from NC into the Chesapeake Bay, with local values in the Outer Banks of 3-5’. Rain totals of 1.5-3” through early Monday will extend north to southern New England, with 3-6” rain totals and local totals to 8” in eastern NC and southeastern VA. Conditions will improve in North Carolina by late Saturday and in the mid-Atlantic by late Sunday.
Other disturbances in NHC outlook, with 2-/7-day NHC development odds: The tropical disturbance nearing 15N, 35W (Invest 90L) in the eastern Tropical Atlantic has NHC development chances of 70% over the next 2 days and 90% in the next 7 days. Convection is looking fairly ragged with 90L this afternoon, but there does appear to be most of a surface circulation in place, so development is probable in the next 1-3 days. The good news here is that a continued weakening trend in subtropical Atlantic ridging means that 90L is almost certain to turn north into the Atlantic well east of the islands, and risks to any landmass continue to diminish. It does have the potential to intensify into a hurricane in 6-10 days over open waters.
Elsewhere: No other areas of note in the Atlantic today.
Mood music:
Next report: Daily bulletin out Monday morning.