Real-time 2023 Atlantic hurricane season projections
Seasonal hurricane forecast models, including for U.S. landfall risks, updated daily.
***This is an archived page. WeatherTiger’s real-time ACE and U.S. landfall risk modeling for the 2024 hurricane season can be found here.***
Real-time Hurricane Season Activity Model (ACE)
Current update: 13 October 2023, 12 p.m. This is the final update for 2023 season.
For model methodology details, read our latest seasonal outlook write-up. Verification scores over the 2016-2022 period can be found here. Model output will be updated each day (other than Saturdays), usually in the afternoon. Real-time probabilities for U.S. hurricane landfall risks are below for paid supporters.
Real-time U.S. Landfall Model (Subscribers only)
Current update: 13 October 2023. This is the final update for the 2023 hurricane season.
A write-up of our landfall risk model expectations for the peak of hurricane season can be read here. Real-time updates are below for subscribers.
Historical model performance plots
Estimated real-time ACE model skill:
Operational skill for issued forecasts over 2016 through 2022 hurricane season:
Why is there such a big disconnect between the landfall model (chance of no landfall is going up) and the ACE model (chance of hyperactive season going up)?