Real-time 2022 Atlantic hurricane season projections

Seasonal forecast model data, updated daily. A WeatherTiger world exclusive.

WeatherTiger is offering a unique perspective on tropical risks in 2022 by updating our seasonal ACE forecast model daily. Bookmark this page and check back often for the latest guidance, and if you like what you read, sign up for our paid subscription. Get daily tropical briefings each weekday, weekly columns, coverage of U.S. hurricane threats, and expanded seasonal outlooks, all for $7.99 per month. Free subscribers receive our weekly columns.

The latest seasonal forecast update, integrating data through August 12th, is below. Our forecast model updates each weekday afternoon, typically between 3 and 5 p.m. Eastern.

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WeatherTiger’s forecast model of total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) for the 2022 hurricane season is updated each afternoon between May and October.

For details of how this model works, read our latest seasonal outlook write-up. A current ACE exceedance plot and estimated intraseasonal skill curve are below, as is our operational model’s forecast performance over 2016-2021 compared with other forecast groups.

Paid subscribers can access our latest daily tropical briefing here.

Free subscribers can access our latest weekly column here.

Archived seasonal forecasts source: https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/.