Full-on Rainstorms: The Hurricane Watch for November 16th

Southeast Florida catches significant rain and wind from a frontal low as Tropical Storm Watches go up for portions of the Greater Antilles due to Potential Tropical Cyclone 22.

Florida tropical threat synopsis: No tropical threats to Florida over the next 7-10 days.

Almanac: It’s Thursday, November 16th… day 168 of the 2023 hurricane season, 15 days to go. By total storm energy, the season is 96.9%, 99.4%, and 99.0% complete for the Atlantic, continental U.S., and Florida, respectively.

Peak gusts (mph) and 48-hour rain totals across South Florida.

While tropical landfall activity is largely behind us in the continental U.S. by the second half of November, impactful weather is by no means limited to tropical storms or hurricanes. Last night, a frontal low swept through the Florida Keys and Southeast Florida, bringing with it impacts roughly equivalent of a moderate/strong tropical storm landfall. Wind gusts across coastal Palm Beach and eastern Broward and Miami-Dade Counties were generally 50 mph or higher, with offshore stations peaking at up to 75 mph! This coupled with rainfall totals of 6-12” led to downed branches, flooded streets, and power outages for over 100,000 customers. Because this low pressure system is connected to several fronts, it is not a tropical cyclone, but this matters little for impacts. With an active subtropical jet likely due to a strong El Nino, this is likely not the last non-tropical Gulf low to have significant impacts on Florida this winter.

Active storms: While Florida’s active weather is being driven by the mid-latitude jet, there is also a proto-tropical storm lurking in the Caribbean. The NHC has begun issuing advisories this afternoon on Potential Tropical Cyclone 22, which has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Vince in the next two days. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the eastern quarter of Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, and the Turks & Caicos islands, as PTC 22 is likely to reach low-end tropical storm status before losing tropical characteristics over the weekend.

The good news remains that PTC22/Vince will have no impact on the continental U.S., as the front moving east from Florida hustles the system due northeast over the next three days. Expect heavy rain and some gusty winds in the central Greater Antilles through Saturday as this system speeds northeast, with general totals from eastern Cuba to Hispaniola on the order of 4-6”, locally higher due to terrain.

Disturbances in the NHC tropical weather outlook: None.

Elsewhere: No other disturbances in the Gulf, Caribbean, or Atlantic, and none are likely to develop in the next 7 days.

Next update: The final regularly scheduled tropical bulletin of the 2023 hurricane season will be out next Monday.