Dexter's Breakfast: The Hurricane Watch for August 4th
Tropical Storm Dexter is not a threat, but there are a couple other tropical features to watch over the next 10 days.
Florida tropical threat synopsis: No serious tropical threats to Florida or the continental U.S. over the next week, though the Southeast coast may see increased rain this weekend from a tropical wave with a late week chance of some development.
Almanac: It’s Monday, August 4th… day 65 of the 2025 hurricane season, 118 days to go. By total storm energy, the season is 8.0%, 18.9%, and 13.0% complete for the Atlantic, continental U.S., and Florida, respectively. Five years ago today, Hurricane Isaias made landfall just west of Wilmington with 85 mph sustained winds— the most recent hurricane to make landfall in North Carolina. Overall, with just three hurricane landfalls (all Cat 1s) in the past 5 years, the U.S. Atlantic coastline has had it relatively easy in the 2020s, in comparison with 14 (!) hurricane landfalls on the Gulf Coast.
Active Storms: As I mentioned was a possibility early last week before being felled by viruses, a stalled frontal boundary over the very warm Gulf Stream has given rise to Tropical Storm Dexter, which is currently about 600 miles east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Dexter has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph this morning and is shuffling east-northeast away from land at about 10 mph. Dexter will pass well north of Bermuda late today and should become post-tropical midweek in the open Atlantic. This is no threat to any landmass— it is Tropical Storm Dexter, not Tropical Storm Sinister, after all (Latin humor!).
Other Disturbances in NHC outlook, with 2-/7-day NHC development odds:
The front that spawned Dexter may not be done, as it will persist across the coastal waters of the Southeastern U.S. over the next 5-7 days. Convection is expected to increase east of Florida and south of the Carolinas by midweek, enhanced by the northern end of a tropical wave, and the NHC is giving this area a 30% chance of slow tropical development over the second half of the week. This feature will not have much time over water, as an upper-level low in the Mississippi Valley would likely pull it inland into the Carolinas on Friday or Saturday. Nevertheless, the Gulf Stream is very warm, and tropical storms (like Chantal) can sometimes come together quickly in this region. I’ll be keeping an eye on it, with late week enhanced rain for the coastal Southeast the likely impact.
NWS/WPC Friday morning surface weather map forecast, showing low pressure east of South Carolina along a stationary front. Finally, something to watch in the longer term is a tropical wave just emerging from the West African coast today. There’s nothing visually impressive about this wave right now, but this morning’s NHC Tropical Weather Outlook has it at an eventual 50% chance of development over the next week. That’s because there’s a notable envelope of mid-level moisture and low-level rotation associated with this wave, and with vertical wind shear dropping and dust clearing out of the Eastern Atlantic, there’s a decent set-up for the first realistic shot at Main Development Region storm formation in 2025 four to seven days from now.
Monday morning Eastern Atlantic visible satellite imagery showing a new tropical wave between 15-20W. (CyclonicWx.com) While both the GFS and European ensembles show solid support for development, they differ in how they handle this wave beyond day 5. The Euro sends the developing system northwest and out-to-sea into a central Atlantic break in subtropical ridging, while the GFS turns the wave back to the west over the weekend under a strong lobe of western Atlantic ridging. We’ll see how things shake out over the next few days as the disturbance gets better defined, though I will note that the continental U.S. pattern may feature frequent East Coast/ Western Atlantic high pressure in mid- and late August. If a coherent tropical feature can make it past 60W and slip under the ridging, that would be something to watch. Stay tuned, but nothing to worry about as yet.
Elsewhere: No other disturbances of note in the Tropical Atlantic today, and no other likely spots for development in the next week. One item to note is that some Euro ensemble members, especially ones less enthusiastic with the lead wave, hint at development with a following wave in the Main Development Region in 8-10+ days.
Next report: I'm feeling much better after a few days of taking it easy and will be back on a regular report schedule this week, so expect the next bulletin tomorrow morning. Thanks for bearing with me while I shook off a particularly nasty round of child crud.
Thanks. Take care of yourself and rest when you need to. Glad you’re feeling better!
Glad you're feeling better! Child crud...the memories...😒