Crossing the Streams: The Hurricane Watch for November 1st

Invest 97L has a chance of development this week as it moves west towards Central America.

Florida tropical threat synopsis: A tropical wave in the Caribbean is heading to Nicaragua and there is no longer any risk to Florida from this system.

Almanac: It’s Wednesday, November 1st… day 153 of the 2023 hurricane season, 30 days to go. By total storm energy, the season is 94.4%, 98.6%, and 97% complete for the Atlantic, continental U.S., and Florida, respectively.

Taking a closer look at the remaining 1.5-3% of landfall activity, those numbers translates into a little more than a dozen historical November landfalls in the continental U.S. Most of these occur in Florida, and are split between East Coast hits like 2022’s Nicole, and tracks into the Gulf Coast, like 1985’s Kate. There are no historical U.S. major hurricane landfalls in November.

Active storms: None.

Disturbances in the NHC tropical weather outlook: Invest 97L in the central Caribbean is producing scattered, disorganized convection south of eastern Cuba and Hispaniola today. This system has not gotten significantly better defined since Monday, and the NHC gives 97L a 20% chance of development through Friday and a 50% chance of development prior to the disturbance reaching Central America this weekend, around the same as two days ago.

With 97L still shallow and lacking an organized circulation, the scenario in which faster development allows the system to be captured by a front and turned northeast next week is off the table. The disturbance will instead angle west or west-southwest, plowing into the Eastern Pacific early next week. It may become a tropical depression or weak tropical storm before tracking over Nicaragua on Saturday, but with the “streams” of east-to-west flow in the Tropics and west-to-east flow over the U.S. no longer likely to cross, the slight risks to Florida from Invest 97L I mentioned on Monday have diminished further and are all but gone from even the GFS Ensembles.

Elsewhere: No other notable disturbances in the Gulf, Caribbean, or Atlantic. There is no expectation of any additional areas to watch developing in the next week as frequent frontal passages across Florida and the Southeast U.S. keep the cool air flowing south and protect against late-season tropical activity.

Programming notes: With 97L no longer a risk to Florida, we’ll be settling into our late season schedule of two tropical bulletins per week, with daily updates resuming if there is a prospective U.S. threat. Thus the next reports will be out Monday (11/6) and Thursday (11/9). The 2023 season-in-review will be released on November 29, with paid supporter monthly newsletters continuing through the hurricane off-season. The first newsletter, with subscriber exclusive 2024 hurricane season (new this year!) and 2023-24 Florida winter outlooks, will be issued on December 8.