Can't Hardly Wait: The Hurricane Watch for June 3rd
Hurricane Season 2024 is off to a slow start, but things could change mid-month.
Happy first (week)day of hurricane season! Paid subscriber daily threat bulletins begin today and will be sent each non-holiday weekday through November 1. To get this forecast in your inbox each day, click below to become a supporter.
Florida tropical threat synopsis: No active tropical threats in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico, and development is unlikely over the next 7 days. The western Caribbean may start to become more conducive for potential development by the middle of next week. Florida will be drier than normal in the meantime.
Mood music:
Almanac: It’s Monday, June 3rd… day 3 of the 2023 hurricane season, with a mere 180 days to go. By total storm energy, the season is 0.7%, 1.0%, and 0.7% complete for the Atlantic, continental U.S., and Florida, respectively. In the first ten days of June, a named storm develops in about 15% of hurricane seasons, with the Gulf, northwestern Caribbean, and southwestern Atlantic favored areas for formation. However, only one major hurricane has developed before June 10— Hurricane Alma in 1966.
Active Storms: None.
Other Disturbances in NHC outlook, with 2-/7-day NHC development odds: None.
Elsewhere: Happy Hurricane Season 2024! You all must have set out a gallon of distilled water and a 96-pack of Kirkland Signature 9-volt batteries for KrampACE the Cyclone Imp on Hurricane Season Eve, because what is likely to be a busy year is kicking off with nothing of note in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. An unfavorable thirty to fifty knots of upper-level wind shear is in place across the regions of typical early season development, which will remain for at least the next week. This means that none of the five tropical waves now crossing the Atlantic will amount to much.
By the middle of next week, this shear may start to ease as a convection-enhancing phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation slides into the western Caribbean. This means a more favorable environment for tropical disturbances to potentially organize will probably be in place in 10 to 15 days from now. However, there’s nothing to specifically watch, and development is very unlikely before then. It can wait.
Next report: Next daily bulletin for paid supporters out tomorrow; the first weekly column of the year will be released on Wednesday.
read the lead and 'guffawed' - thanks Ryan